Can aircraft demand meet supply?

Boeing's Commercial Market Outlook for 2025 projects a strong demand for 43,600 new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years, driven by rising passenger traffic and the need for fleet modernization.

Passenger Traffic Growth: Boeing forecasts that global passenger traffic will grow at an annual rate of 4.2%, more than doubling in size by 2044. This growth is expected to outpace global economic growth, indicating a robust recovery and expansion in air travel demand.

Aircraft Deliveries: The company anticipates a need for 43,600 new commercial airplanes from 2025 to 2044. This includes a significant number of single-aisle aircraft, which are projected to make up 72% of the global fleet, reflecting the increasing demand for short-haul travel and low-cost carriers, particularly in emerging markets.

Fleet Modernization: Approximately 80% of the in-service airplanes will be replaced, with more than 21,000 deliveries aimed at improving fleet efficiency and capability. This transition is crucial as airlines look to modernize their fleets to meet environmental standards and enhance operational efficiency.

Emerging Markets: Emerging markets are expected to play a significant role in driving global air traffic growth, with these regions projected to represent over 50% of the global commercial fleet by 2044, up from nearly 40% in 2024. This shift highlights the growing middle class and increased aviation investment in these areas.

Long-Haul Fleet Expansion: The global passenger widebody fleet is expected to increase to approximately 8,320 airplanes by 2044, driven by carriers in emerging markets expanding their long-haul fleets to meet international travel demand.

Boeing's Commercial Market Outlook for 2025 reflects a resilient aviation industry poised for significant growth in the coming decades. The combination of rising passenger traffic, a strong demand for new aircraft, and the need for fleet modernization underscores the optimistic trajectory of the commercial aviation sector as it continues to recover from past challenges and adapt to future demands.

Emerging markets, with expanding middle classes, dynamic and competitive airline networks and sustained aviation investment, will play an outsized role in global air traffic growth, helping drive a need for 43,600 commercial airplanes over the next 20 years, Boeing [NYSE: BA] projected today.

These markets will represent over 50% of the global commercial fleet in 2044, up from nearly 40% in 2024. Ahead of the Paris Air Show, Boeing released its 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which also predicts airplane supply will catch up with market demand around the end of the decade, enabling carriers to increasingly renew and grow their fleets.

“Throughout the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled as the commercial aviation industry navigated significant challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing. “Resilience will remain a hallmark of this growing industry as we continue to see strong demand for new airplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.”

Passenger traffic is forecast to grow 4.2% annually ─ more than doubling in size as it continues to outpace global economic growth.

The global fleet will nearly double to more than 49,600 commercial airplanes as airlines add capacity to meet travel demand.

About 80% of in-service airplanes will be replaced with more than 21,000 deliveries, improving fleet efficiency and capability.

Single-aisle airplanes will make up 72% of the global fleet, up from 66% in 2024, driven largely by short-haul travel and low-cost carriers in emerging markets.

The global passenger widebody fleet will increase to approximately 8,320 airplanes, up from roughly 4,400 in 2024 ─ growth increasingly driven by carriers in emerging markets expanding their long-haul fleets.

Supply chain diversification and expanding express cargo networks will drive a nearly two-thirds expansion of the global freighter fleet and the need for 2,900 production and converted freighters.

Airline networks serve about 30% more airport pairs than a decade ago, providing more convenient non-stop flight options.

As a share of discretionary expenses, travel spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels as consumers prioritize air travel.

Rising passenger demand for air travel is meeting with a constrained supply of new aircraft. While passenger demand has rebounded from pandemic-era lows and is projected to keep growing, delivery times for newly manufactured aircraft—and maintenance turnaround times for planes in existing fleets—have slowed. The resulting divergence between demand and supply is creating a concerning mismatch analysis that finds that the global shortage could be closer to roughly 2,000 aircraft (with around 75 percent of the shortage relating to narrow-body aircraft). This is considerably smaller than the roughly 5,000-aircraft gap that might be suggested by focusing on the difference between pre- and post-pandemic delivery trajectories.